Is Best Picture predictable this year?

If this Oscar season has been anything, it has been unpredictable. For years I have watched people complain about how boring predictable seasons are, and this year everyone has pretty much lost their collective minds due to the unpredictability. I find it all fascinating.

I have very little doubt that whatever I correctly predict come Sunday will mostly come from luck and gut. I would like to get Best Picture right, mostly because I have missed it for the past several years. Not since "Spotlight" have I correctly picked the big winner.

This time of year, people get some crazy ideas about things. I've been reading that "A Star is Born" and "Black Panther" actually have a shot winning with the Academy's Preferential Ballot. I would like for that to be possible with "A Star is Born" in particular, but I just don't see that happening. I think that line of thinking is boredom talking. "Black Panther," maybe, but "A Star is Born" has seemed out of the race for a while.

The only film to have won on a preferential ballot so far has been "Green Book" with its Producer's Guild Award. The actors spoke for "Black Panther," but SAG has not been a predictor for Best Picture in a few years.

Awards Daily posted a fantastic piece about the competing agendas each contender and their studio has, (The State of the Race — Competing Agendas Throw Oscar Race Out of Whack), and in there she mentioned how each guild has gone with a different film for its prize.

Perhaps that is the story of predicting 2019. I know that I personally feel more than ever that I want to stand alone. This is the first time in almost 10 years that I haven't published at Awards Daily, and my Oscar world didn't end. I also halted my 27 Days of Oscar series. And, before Oscar night I will write my opinion on Queer Representation and Addiction in film instead of traditional looks at every category.

Side note: Did you see Brett Easton Ellis's piece on Representation that came out yesterday morning? It was fantastic, and certain to be eviscerated by Outrage (Film) Twitter. Bret Easton Ellis: The Year the Oscars Finally Got Gay Right (Guest Column)

If the Academy continues along this path of singularity, they could go with "BlacKkKlansman" or even "The Favourite." The problem with "The Favourite" winning is the Preferential ballot. BUT..."BlacKkKlansman" is a possibility. As has been said elsewhere, the Academy seems, on occasion, to use their vote to do the right thing. Pun, intended.

I do know this...and HEAR ME PEOPLE...I've said this recently, and I will say it again. As a voting advisory board member for the Dorian Awards...I can tell you, we are a body of critics, but we do not have a collective voice. I did not vote for half of the things that won, several of which I would never have considered for the win, including our Best Film.

I also voted for several Queer directors' films for the LGBTQ Film prize, but that was not how things landed when nominations came out. And Twitter (or at least one person on twitter) took our collective body to task, stating we should do better. I wanted to shout, "BUT I DID!!"

My point, the Academy is thousands of members, and sometimes, no ALWAYS, the win comes down to votes. With Best Picture there is the fact that a hated movie will never win (SORRY "VICE") even if it has its champions. All thanks to the Preferential Ballot.

Side note #2 (taken from ABC News)
Counting the best picture race is complicated: The process of counting votes for best picture isn't as simple as one might think. According to Cullinan, each voter is asked to rank the nominated films, with one being their top choice. After determining which film garnered the least number of votes, PwC employees take that title out of contention and look to see which movie each of those voters selected as their second favorite. That redistribution process continues until there are only two films remaining. The one with the biggest pile wins. "It doesn’t necessarily mean that who has the most number one votes from the beginning is ensured they win," he added. "It’s not necessarily the case, because going through this process of preferential voting, it could be that the one who started in the lead, doesn’t finish in the lead."

SO, is this year predictable? Meaning...can Best Picture be predicted?

Last year I was sure that "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" was going to win, but in the end it lost to "The Shape of Water" a film that no one had an issue with. And while "Green Book" might seem on the surface like an "Academy" film, there are too many people in the Academy who won't rank the film anywhere near the top, not because they don't like it, but because they feel the pressure to do the right thing. It's possible that some Academy members had their heads in the sand during the negative campaigning, but they read the trades. Funny how it wasn't until after ballots were almost completely in that the Hollywood Reporter published a positive response from Don Shirley's heir. Not as sexy as trashing the film, I guess.

'Green Book' Subject Don Shirley's Heir Speaks Out for First Time

So, what is going to win?!

I've seen a few critics, particularly in the group I belong to, say some negative things about "Roma," but I don't see that happening amongst people who actually make movies.

"Roma" is an amazing piece of filmmaking and hard not to love. I'm picking it to win. I love the film, and of all the ones nominated it was placed highest on my Top 10. It deserves it as well.