For better, worse or indifference, here are my Oscar predictions.
Picture
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”
If the Academy continues with the trend of the season (each guild has given a different film its award), they could go with either "A Star is Born" or "BlaKkKlansman." But the Academy is not a collective mind. Neither film has won a major prize.
The only film to win Best Picture on a Preferential Ballot was "Green Book" at the PGA. But can "Green Book" win on the Academy's PB. This isn't the Producer's Guild. The recent additions to the membership should have an affect here. Sorry, "Green Book." I can't see "The Favourite" winning either. Too queer. Sure, "The Shape of Water" was quirky, but in actuality the tale was quite traditional. "Vice" is despised by many...but are those people in the Academy?
That leaves us with "Black Panter," "Bohemian Rhapsody" and "Roma." I haven't thought much about "Bohemian Rhapsody" for this...but it could spoil, now that I'm really looking at it. I think the top prize goes to either "Black Panther" or "Roma."
will win/should win:
ROMA
Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Several people are still holding on to a spoil by Olivia Coleman. Could I be blinded here by my lukewarm response to "The Favourite?" Perhaps. If anything, I still think Lady Gaga could squeak by for a win.
But, it must be Glenn Close's year. The last time an overdue actor lost, it was Sylvester Stallone, and it was mostly due to a split, right? Hmmm....maybe Olivia Coleman makes sense after all?
will win/should win:
Glenn Close
Actor
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
What once was Christian Bale is now Rami Malek. And I couldn't be more meh.
Actually, I think I've made peace with this. Although Bradley Cooper was the only one from this bunch to land on my Top Performances of the year, I think I am feeling Dafoe for the "Should win."
will win:
Rami Malek
should win: Willem Dafoe
Director
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Is it Oscaritis causing people to think that Spike Lee has a chance here? Or is it really possible? I would like to think so. I would vote for him. It could happen, and that would be pretty bad ass. I'm thinking it's Cuaron though.
will win:
Alfonso Cuaron
spoiler: Spike Lee
should win: Spike Lee
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
will win:
Mahershala Ali
should win: Richard E. Grant
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Oscaritis says Rachel Weisz has a chance. But she didn't win SAG, Emily Blunt did. There is really no evidence other than a BAFTA win for this, and they notoriously vote for their own.
will win/should win:
Regina King
Live Action Short
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv
will win/should win:
Fauve
spoiler: Marguerite
Animated Short
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez
This is the category giving me the most grief this year, I think. Last year I was convinced that "Dear Basketball" would not win because it was the worst of the bunch. But Kobe Bryant played Hollywood and the Academy and they caved like the HFPA (Golden Globes, y'all). "Bao" is Pixar...and it is the worst of the bunch. Pixar doesn't always win, although progs almost always predict it. They won for "Piper" in 2017, but "Piper" was quite strong. Before that you have to go all the way back to 2000. I'm taking a risk here and going for "Animal Behaviour."
will win/should win:
Animal Behaviour
spoiler: Bao or Weekends
Animated Feature
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
This a no-brainer, which is so exciting to say. "Spider-Man: Into the Spider" is one of the best films of the year.
will win/should win:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Cinematography
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique
Matthew Libatique should have won for "Black Swan," but alas, he did not. His work in "A Star is Born" is equal to the performance and the direction, but this isn't his year. I think the Academy will award Cuaron, particularly due to the fact that he came out for this category to be presented live. But I see Lukasz Zal as a spoiler here.
will win:
Alfonso Cuaron
spoiler: Lukasz Zal
should win: Matthew Libatique (by a hair!)
Editing
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin
will win/should win:
BlacKkKlansman
spoiler: Vice or Green Book or....you name it
Hairstyling and Makeup
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”
I wish that "Border" would win because it absolutely deserves it.
will win: Vice
should win: Border
Documentary Feature
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen
This is a bit more difficult to predict than people might think. But, the fact that "RBG" wasn't nominated for the IDA, ("Minding the Gap" won) and honestly, I don't remember much about the film other than the scene with RBG working out, I'm going with "Free Solo."
will win:
Free Solo
should win: Minding the Gap (by a hair!)
spoiler: RBG
Documentary Short
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi
A great group of nominees. To me, the real standouts are Marshall Curry's "A Night at the Garden," "End Game" and "Period. End of Sentence." Curry's is my favorite of the bunch, but he basically just edited footage together to tell a story. Is that good enough? There is also a narrative that the Academy's male members won't vote for a short film about periods. I find this a bit unbelievable, but I could be wrong.
will win/should win:
Period. End of Sentence
Production Design
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Another tough call. Let's go ahead and eliminate "First Man" and "Mary Poppins Returns." I think "Black Panther" is a worthy choice here, same with "Roma" but the extravagance of "The Favourite" should take the prize.
will win/should win:
The Favourite
Visual Effects
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Dare I repeat myself again here? Not easy. This should have gone to "First Man," but the lackluster love the film received from the Academy in the major categories gives the edge to the Avengers. If it wins, this will be the first Marvel win in the category.
will win:
Avengers: Infinity War
should win: First Man
Sound Editing
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Ok...before I give my prediction, I know that I should predict the same film for both Editing and Mixing, but I have this funny feeling that they may split the vote on this. There is a reason they nominated "A Star is Born" in mixing.
First...editing. Let's go with "Bohemian Rhapsody."
First...editing. Let's go with "Bohemian Rhapsody."
will win:
Bohemian Rhapsody
should win: First Man
Sound Mixing
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
This prediction is probably a mistake. But I'm going out on a limb here.
will win/should win:
A Star is Born
spoiler: Bohemian Rhapsody
Original Song
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
For a hot second I thought that maybe Diane Warren could win for "I'll Fight" which would also give Jennifer Hudson a 2nd Oscar. But having rewatched "A Star is Born" last night, and revisiting "Shallow" again after the credits rolled. It has to win.
will win/should win:
Shallow
Original Score
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
If Shaiman wins he becomes and EGOT. But...pretty doubtful. The score for "If Beale Street Could Talk" is wonderful, but would really shock me. I'm going with "BlacKkKlansman."
will win/should win: BlacKkKlansman
Costume Design
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne
Apparently I am going out on a limb here predicting "Black Panther." I guess it is more obvious that the Academy would award Powell for "The Favourite" or "Mary Queen of Scots," but I'm feeling this for some reason.
will win/should win:
Black Panther
spoiler: The Favourite
Original Screenplay
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
One of the toughest races to call. I honestly think any of these films could win, but I think the Academy will give Adam McKay his second Oscar.
will win:
Adam McKay
should win: First Reformed
spoiler: Any of them
Adapted Screenplay
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
This has to be Spike Lee. If they aren't going to award him Best Director, they will award him here. Although I personally would vote for "Can You Ever Forgive Me."
will win:
Spike Lee
should win/spoiler: Nicole Hologcener and Jeff Whitty
Foreign Language Film
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)
"Burning's" omission here is glaring, and for a minute I was on the bandwagon that "Cold War" could win this. And it might. But I'm going for "Roma."
will win/should win:
ROMA
FULL PREDICTIONS
Picture: ROMA
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Cinematography: ROMA
Actor: Rami Malek
Actress: Glenn Close
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Regina King
Foreign Language Film: ROMA
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Editing: BlacKkKLansman
Original Screenplay: Vice
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Original Score: BlacKkKlansman
Original Song: Shallow
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing: A Star is Born
Live Action Short: Fauve
Animated Short: Animal Behaviour
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
Costume Design: Black Panther
Production Design: The Favourite
Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War
Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
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