27 Days of Oscar, Day 26: Predictions

Predictions are only part of what I do here at Awards Wiz. My 27 Days of Oscar is a means to discover films I might not have seen otherwise. It also helps me to look at how the nomianted films compare with one another (it is a competition after all), determine my favorites and see how my own opinions measure up against what the Academy has nominated. The final step in the process is the predictions themselves.

This year was a tough year to predict, but then suddenly it wasn't. There were so many factors. First of all, there were the two frontrunners for Best Picture, "The Shape of Water" and "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." They have battled it out for the big prizes all season. Then there is the critics/audience darling, "Get Out." Somehow, without any wins at all it is also legitimately in the race. Is it because the pundits can't see past their love for the film? That is extremely possible. I fell into that trap last year when I couldn't see the writing on the wall that "Moonlight" was going to win instead of "La La Land." Which leads me to the final thorn in my side, my complete and undeniable passion for my favorite film of the year, "Call Me By Your Name." Am I overcompensating for what happened last year by not even considering this for Best Picture? It has 3 of the 4 nominations that "Get Out" has, minus the Best Directing Oscar after all.

And that is just Best Picture!

Yesterday, heading toward the finish line I find myself doubting.  Let's take Documentary Short as the example. On Friday of last week, a mere 8 days ago I thought "Heroin(e)" would be the winner. It was my favorite, it was Netflix, how could it loose.

But come Tuesday, the day the ballots were due I had come around to "Eddie+Edith." Why? I was going out on a limb with Animated Short and wanted to stick with a more consensus, middle of the road, sentimental choice for one of the shorts. I knew that if I missed all 3 I would be in trouble with my predictions. If I could get 2, that would be great.

Now, I'm feeling the tide shift toward "Heroin(e)," and if it wins I want to have bragging rights because that was what I was initially feeling immediately after watching all 5 nominees. Also, I think it's better than "Eddie+Edith."  But I cannot let my emotions get the best of me. There is a reason I went with it on Tuesday, and I'm going to stick with it despite what I might feel today. 

I heard Anne Thompson say on her podcast that when she changes at the last minute she is often wrong. I think that might be the case with me as well. Let's stick to what I "knew" on Tuesday. 

Here are my predictions. If you want to see my original take, the links are there as well. I will do a complete list at the end of the poast with potential spoilers and my picks for what should win as well.

And if you want to see how I stack up against other experts. check out Awards Daily's Big Bad Predictions Chart:

Big Bad Predictions Chart

I could legitimately only get 12/12, but here's hoping that's not the case.

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

"Two way race, three way race, maybe even "Dunkirk!"

It's been a wild ride, but my logic comes down to this. Del Toro is winning director, always was. The PGA did go to "The Shape of Water," which is extremely significant, and in any other year, I would say that's where the tide turned, but...

"Three Billboards was the film that kept winning all year. Even when pundits were saying it was "Get Out" and "The Shape of Water," maybe even "Dunkirk," it was the film that kept on winning. I believe the "backlash" to be in the internet bubble only. When I saw the film it was a turning point in the year for me. I had been impressed with "Get Out," "Baby Driver" and "Dunkirk," but very concerned that not only might it be a weak year, but also a boring one to cover. "Three Billboards" changed that. It angered me when I heard "faggot" uttered twice. I was very uncomfortable, but the film absolutely won me over. In a lesser year it would absolutely made my top 10.

"The Shape of Water" is good, very good. "Get Out" is brilliant, but again. Where is the proof? If it wins on Oscar night, that will be the proof. All the rules will go out the window.

Day 22: Predicting Best Picture

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

This one has been in the bag since the role was cast. There was a brief moment in time when those of us rooting for Timothee Chalamet thought the critics might push him through. But Anne Thompson always says, the critics can't really help someone win, what they do is give potential nominees visibility. They help with nominations. But the Academy does what the Academy does, despite what the critics say. And the guilds often feel the need to get on the train. Heck...even the critics abandoned Timothee in the end with the Critics Choice Awards. It's Gary Oldman's.

Day 23: Actor and Actress

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

I've been saying for a few weeks now that I'd be happy if either Sally Hawkins, Margot Robbie or Frances McDormand wins. I would be a tad disappointed if Saoirse Ronan won and completely baffled if Streep won.

But today, I want it to be Frances McDormand. She gives the best performance, although Margot Robbie comes quite close.

Day 23: Actor and Actress

Actor in a Supporting Role

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

See Best Actor RE: Timothee' Chalamet and the critics. Same exact thing happened here. The critics and the internet really, really wanted Dafoe to win an Oscar. I like him so much in the film. He and Brooklynn Prince are so wonderful. I couldn't get past the unlikeability and bad acting from Bria Vinaite to actually love the film.

I personally think that Christopher Plummer gives the best performance in this category, but his nomination is the win here. Which somehow softens the blow for me that Stuhlbarg and Hammer were left out. I would have taken out Woody and nominated 6 people. Yeah...fantasy land.

Sam is great in the role, and I'll be happy if he wins.

Actress and Actor in a Supporting Role

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

See Best Actor and Supporting Actor RE: Timothee' Chalamet, Willem Dafoe and the critics. Same exact thing happened here as well! I had hoped for a brief moment that Lesley Manville could sneak in here for a win, but when BAFTA went with Janney it was sealed. Maybe there will be a shock here. I would love a shock in some category...just to keep things interesting. But can it please happen in Best Actor?

Actress and Actor in a Supporting Role

Directing:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Day 20: Directing and Editing

This really is a great list, despite not having Luca Guadagnino in it. If I had to take someone off this list it would be Greta Gerwig, but then the story would have been the lack of a woman nomination again. SEE...this is what happens when you don't nominate the people when they deserve it. Had Bigelow been nominated for "Zero Dark Thirty" maybe it wouldn't have been necessary to catapult Gerwig to the cover of Time Magazine. Yes...people love "Lady Bird," so I am probably off base here.

I would love to see Peele win, or my favorite in the category, Paul Thomas Anderson, but it would be the biggest shock of the night if Guillermo del Toro lost this award.

Animated Feature:

“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

The weakest category of the year. I would be perfectly happy if "The Breadwinner" won here, but when Pixar is great, it wins.

Day 25: Animated Feature and Makeup and Hairstyling


Animated Short:

“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

The weakest category of the year, part 2. There are two good nominees, and they are "Garden Party" and "Negative Space." I can't in good conscience pick "Dear Basketball." It's not good. I would rather miss the category all together.

Day 21: Shorts

Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Barring the second biggest upset of the night, James Ivory should finally win an Oscar for "Call Me By Your Name."

Day 19: Screenplay

Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Is Original Screenplay truly tied to Best Picture? I got into that on day 19 (see below). I think that if "Three Billboards" wins this, it certainly wins Best Picture. That being said I also think if "Get Out" wins this "Three Billboards" wins Best Picture. If "The Shape of Water" wins this, then the category is tied to Best Picture.

Day 19: Screenplay

Cinematography:

“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Day 13: Cinematography

This is the year Roger Deakins wins. If he doesn't win this, his only shot is shooting a Best Picture winner. It would be great for Rachel Morrison to win this category, but if anyone deserves it more than Deakins it's Hoyte van Hoytema.

Best Documentary Feature:

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

This is a tough one. Similar to Doc Short, I initially believed that "Icarus" would win this award. And "Icarus" is now the consensus. But I can't discount how much better "Faces Places" is. If you missed my piece at Awards Daily, check it out:

Documentary Feature

Best Documentary Short Subject:

“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

This is the one I most want to change. But as I said earlier, I'm not going to. What a great group of films!

Day 21: Shorts

Best Live Action Short Film:

“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

This is a great group of shorts. I think that "DeKalb" is the best and will win as well!

Day 21: Shorts

Best Foreign Language Film:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

This is another tough category to predict. Similar to Documentary Feature. Part of me really thinks that "The Insult" could win here, and I would be happy with that, even though "A Fantastic Woman" is my favorite in the category.

If you missed my piece at Awards Daily, check it out:

Day 16: Foreign Language Film and Costume Design
Foreign Language

Film Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

This is similar to Original Screenplay. If "Dunkirk" wins, which I think it will and should or if "Baby Driver" wins, it really won't mean much for Best Picture, but if either our Best Picture frontrunners wins this category it will be significant.

Day 20: Editing and Directing

Sound Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

It's not best to split these when predicting. It could be "Baby Driver," "Blade Runner 2049" or "Dunkirk" for both. I'm going with "Dunkirk."

Day 14: Sound

Sound Mixing:

“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

See above.

Day 14: Sound

Production Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

Everyone is saying Production Design is going to The Shape of Water. I think the design is absolutely wonderful for this...but I would actually pick "Blade Runner 2049."

Day 17: Production Design

Original Score:

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

There is a small chance that Jonny Greenwood could sneak in. I don't know if you remember, but there was a time when most people weren't even predicting Greenwood would get nominated. Small chance that Carter Burwell could sneak in too. I think that "Dunkirk" deserves it, actually. See why below.

Day 24: Score and Song

Original Song:

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

I really, really, really want to say that "Mystery of Love" should win, but honestly, I think "This is Me" deserves it. I might be singing a different tune if "Visions of Gideon" was the Sufjan song that was nominated. My prediction: "This is Me." The love for this film and the song are so strong it must filter into the Academy as well. If I'm wrong...it will probably be "Remember Me."

Day 24: Score and Song

Makeup and Hairstyling:

“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

I just wrote about this yesterday. I think this is an easy prediction. Although not so easy for what I think deserves it.

Day 25: Makeup and Hairstyling and Animated Feature

Costume Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

There is some talk that members of the Academy weren't quite as impressed with "Phantom Thread" as the rest of us were. There is also some talk that there are members of the Academy who will vote for this simply because it's a film about costumes (which is a major understatement). If "The Shape of Water" wins this, it will certainly show strength for the film.

Costume Design and Foreign Language Film

Visual Effects:

“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

Last but not least. Visual effects. This is a tough one. Twice, when "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" and "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" were nominated for this category I predicted them and they lost. This is their last chance to award the film. But this isn't "Lord of the Rings." I'm going with "Blade Runner 2049."

Day 15: Visual Effects

WILL WIN
Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actor: Gary Oldman
Actress: Frances McDormand
Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell
Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney
Directing: Guillermo del Toro
Animated Feature: Coco
Animated Short: Garden Party
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Original Screenplay: Get Out
Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Documentary Feature: Faces Places
Documentary Short: Eddie+Edith
Live Action Short: DeKalb Elementary
Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Original Score: The Shape of Water
Original Song: This is Me
Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049

Possible spoilers
Picture: The Shape of Water*
Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
Actress: Sally Hawkins
Actor in a Supporting Role: Willem Dafoe (but not really)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Lesley Manville
Directing: Jordan Peele
Animated Feature: The Breadwinner
Animated Short: Dear Basketball*
Adapted Screenplay: Mudbound*
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Cinematography: Dunkirk*
Documentary Feature: Icarus*
Documentary Short: Heroin(e)*
Live Action Short: The Eleven O'Clock
Foreign Language Film: The Insult*
Film Editing: Baby Driver*
Sound Editing: Baby Driver
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
Production Design: Dunkirk
Original Score: Phantom Thread
Original Song: Remember Me*
Makeup and Hairstyling: Wonder
Costume Design: The Shape of Water*
Visual Effects: War For the Planet of the Apes*

*legitimate threat

SHOULD WIN:
Picture: Call Me By Your Name
Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Actress: Frances McDormand
Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell
Actress in a Supporting Role: Lesley Manville
Directing: Paul Thomas Anderson
Animated Feature: Coco
Animated Short: Garden Party
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Original Screenplay: Get Out
Cinematography: Dunkirk
Documentary Feature: Faces Places
Documentary Short: Heroin(e)
Live Action Short: DeKalb Elementary
Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049
Original Score: Dunkirk
Original Song: This is Me
Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Visual Effects: War For the Planet of the Apes