27 Days of Oscar, Day 26 part 2: Independent Spirit Awards - my votes, my predictions

I have a few hours to kill before the Independent Spirit Awards, so I thought I would do a quick predictions piece and also let you in on my votes. I reached out to Film Independent to make sure they were cool with me talking about my votes, and they said as long as I didn't give anyone my screeners, it was cool. No need to be incognito about my choices and no need to be brutally honest. Honest will do.

Best Feature
Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Rider

Is there any doubt here on what I voted for? Of course I went with "Call Me By Your Name." I think it has a legitimate chance of winning here. I really do. The consensus seems to be going for "Get Out." They tied for the most nominations. I will be happy if either film wins. For a very long time "Get Out" was my favorite film of the year. But today, I am going to predict my favorite film of the year for the one and only time. Why don't we go for a split. Just for fun!!

Will win/My vote: Call Me By Your Name

Best Director
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Jonas Carpignano, A Ciambra
Luca Gudagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Benny Safdie and Josh Benny, Good Time
Chloé Zhao, The Rider

Let me be completely transparent here. We were not supposed to vote on a category of which we had not seen all of the films. I reached out to the producers of A Ciambra multiple times. I got one response which sent me to another person, and then silence. There was no chance in hades that I wasn't going to vote for Luca Guadagnino. Sorry. 

Since I'm predicting a "Call Me By Your Name" win for Best Feature, let's go with Jordan Peele for the prediction

Will win: Jordan Peele

My vote: Luca Guadagnino

Best First Feature
Columbus
Ingrid Goes West
Menashe
Oh Lucy!
Patti Cake$

This was an AMAZING category of films, and I almost didn't watch them all. It was going to be this category or Female Lead. So, I went with this one. I came very close to voting for "Columbus" but I had some real issues with one of the scenes near the end. "Ingrid Goes West," "Menashe," and "Patti Cake$" were all really, really great. But my vote went to "Oh Lucy!" I absolutely loved that film.

Will win: Columbus (not sure why I'm predicting it. Most people are. Could it go to Ingrid?)

My vote: Oh Lucy!

Best Female Lead
Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Shinobu Terajima, Oh Lucy!
Regina Williams, Life and Nothing More

I didn't end up voting in this category because I didn't watch Beatriz at Dinner of Life and Nothing More.  I have to believe this will go to Frances.

Will win: Frances McDormand

Best Male Lead
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Robert Pattinson, Good Time

I thought everyone was really good in this category. But my pick is clear.

Will win/my vote: Timothee Chalamet

Best Supporting Female
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Taliah Lennice Webster, Good Time

To be honest, I'm only have sold on all of these performances. I think they will go with Laurie Metcalf, but my favorite, in a film I found very overrated. Holly Hunter.

Will win: Laurie Metcalf

Should win: Holly Hunter

Best Supporting Male
Nnamdi Asomugha, Crown Heights
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Bennie Safdie, Good Time

I do not for the life of my understand the nomination for Nnamdi Asomugha. So, he's out. Had Michael Stuhlbarg been nominated, I think he would be winning this, but he wasn't. So, I'm going with Sam Rockwell.

Will win: Sam Rockwell

My vote: Armie Hammer

Best Screenplay
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Azazel Jacobs, The Lovers
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Mike White, Beatriz at Dinner

Again...having not seen Beatriz at the Dinner I didn't vote in this category. I think this very well might go to Greta Gerwig. 

Will win: Greta Gerwig

Best First Screenplay
Kyle Aspoleta (Story by Kyle Espeleta and Jesse Wakeman), Donald Cried
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Ingrid Jungermann, Women Who Kill
Kogonada, Columbus
David Branson Smith and Matt Spicer, Ingrid Goes West

Ugh. I guess this will go to The Big Sick. 

Will win: The Big Sick

Best International Film
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
A Fantastic Woman
I Am Not a Witch
Lady Macbeth
Loveless

I missed "I Am Not a Witch" and "Lady Macbeth." But amongst the three that I did see I'm going to pick "BPM"

Will win: BPM (Beats Per Minute)

Best Documentary Feature
The Departure
Faces Places
The Last Men in Aleppo
Motherland
Quest

Will win: Faces Places

Best Cinematography
Thimios Bakatakis, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Elisha Christian, Columbus
Hélène Louvart, Beach Rats
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
Joshua James Richards, The Rider

I thought the cinematography for "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" was very inconsistent. Sometimes it absolutely blew my mind. Other times, the grain seemed to be off. I think it's between "Call Me By Your Name" and "The Rider." 

Will win: The Rider

My vote: Call Me By Your Name

Best Editing
Ronald Bronstein and Benny Safdie, Good Time
Walter Fasano, Call Me by Your Name
Alex O'Flinn, The Rider
Gregory Plotkin, Get Out
Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya

Another tough one! I think Walter Fasono's editing in "Call Me By Your Name" is brilliant. But so is both Gregory Plotkin's work in "Get Out" and Tatiana S. Riegel's work in "I, Tonya."

Will win: Get Out

My vote: Call Me By Your Name

John Cassavetes Award
Dayveon
A Ghost Story
Life and Nothing More
Most Beautiful Island
The Transfiguration

Will win: A Ghost Story

Robert Altman Award
Mudbound

These last three I know nothing about, so I'm not even going to try.

Kiehl's Someone to Watch Award
Amman Abbasi, Dayveon
Justin Chon, Gook
Kevin Phillips, Super Dark Times

Piaget Producers Award
Giulia Caruso and Ki Jin Kim
Ben LeClair
Summer Shelton

Jeep Truer Than Fiction Award
Shevaun Mizrahi, Distant Constellation
Jonathan Olshefshi, Quest
Jeff Unay, The Cage Fighter

Bonnie Award
So Yong Kim
Lynn Shelton
Chloé Zhao