Thoughts and predictions heading into Oscar nominations

Tomorrow Oscar nominations are announced, and one thing I know for sure is that Film Twitter is not only a poor representation of the actual landscape of the Oscar race, particularly the Oscar voter themselves but also completely out of touch with real, paying audiences.

Last week one of the hosts of a podcast I absolutely love and respect said  that they had not spoken to a single person who likes "Bohemian Rhapsody." I don't know what world they live in because I  haven't heard from an actual human being that they didn't like it (other than me). Same with "A Star is Born" and the most recent target, "Green Book."

When I returned to Twitter a couple of years ago after a much needed break there were a ton of new voices with a significant list of followers. I found this pretty exciting for a time, but then something really unfortunate began to happen. Just like with politics, or any other outrageable issue, once these voices get going they feed off of each other like a virus in 280 character hot takes with back and forth replies and quoted retweets until things are so confusing and void of nuance that it's impossible to gauge truth.

So, what gives? With the Oscar race, at least? Particularly after the PGA win for "Green Book."

I for one enjoyed "Green Book." On a second viewing I found it to be a bit slight, but well acted. But Film Twitter thinks it should be something it is not. They wanted "La La Land" to be something it was not as well. "Moonlight," however, soothed their sweet spot. But that was before it was uncool for heterosexuals to tell queer stories. Today, who knows? "Manchester by the Sea" might have won. Oh, wait...Casey Affleck...they might have had to just cancel the Oscars that year.

Basically, if a film does not check off all social consciousness boxes it is unworthy of praise and must be destroyed at all costs.

Social media is not real, so people like me, who have little access to Hollywood anymore have to rely on the films themselves, gut feelings and experience from the past. I can tell you that the more I have pulled away from Twitter and Facebook in the past couple of weeks, I have actually become more grounded in my own opinions.

I could be wrong about "First Man" getting in over "If Beale Street Could Talk" for Best Picture. Same with Emily Blunt and Ethan Hawke over Yalitza Aparicio and John David Washington. "Annihilation" more than likely isn't getting in for Original Score, but something is making it me put it down. Maybe because it's AMAZING.

And who knows with the shorts. That's really a crap shoot for me.

Let's give it a shot, shall we?

Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Spoiler: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Director
Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"
Peter Farrelly, "Green Book"
Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"
Bradley Cooper, "A Star is Born"

Spoiler: Adam McKay, "Vice"

Best Actor
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Ethan Hawke, "First Reformed"

Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"

Bradley Cooper,"A Star Is Born"

Christian Bale, "Vice"

Spoiler: John David Washington, "BlaKkKlansman"

Best Actress

Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me"

Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"

Emily Blunt, "Mary Poppins Returns"

Lady Gaga, "A Star is Born"

Glenn Close, "The Wife

Spoiler: Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"

Best Supporting Actor

Timothee Chalamet, "Beautiful Boy"

Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman"

Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me"

Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"

Sam Elliott, "A Star is Born"

Spoiler: Michael B. Jordon, "Black Panther"

Best Supporting Actress

Emma Stone, "The Favourite"

Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"

Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"

Emily Blunt, "A Quiet Place"

Amy Adams, "Vice"

Spoiler: Claire Foy, "First Man"

Best Cinematography

"Cold War"

"The Favourite"

"First Man"

"Roma"

"A Star is Born"

Spoiler: "Black Panther"

Best Adapted Screenplay

"BlaKkKlansman"

"Can You Ever Forgive Me"

"If Beale Street Could Talk"

"Leave No Trace"

"A Star is Born"

Spoiler: "Black Panther"

Best Original Screenplay

"The Favourite"

"First Reformed"

"Eighth Grade"

"Roma"

"Vice"

Spoiler: "Green Book"

Animated Feature

"Isle of Dogs"

"Incredibles 2"

"Mirai"

"Ralph Breaks the Internet"

"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"

Best Costume Design
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”

“The Favourite”

“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Mary Queen of Scots”

Spoiler: "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: The Crimes of Grindewald"

Best Documentary Feature
“Free Solo”
“Minding the Gap”
“RBG”

"Three Identical Strangers"
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”

Best Editing

"Bohemian Rhapsody"

“First Man”

“Roma”

“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

Spoiler: "Black Panther"

Best Foreign Language Film
“Burning" (South Korea)

“Capernaum” (Lebanon)

“Cold War” (Poland)

“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

Spoiler: "Birds of Passage"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Border"

“Vice”

Best Production Design
“Black Panther”
“The Favourite”

“First Man”

“Mary Poppins Returns”

“Roma”

Best Original Score

"Annihilation" 

“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”

Best Original Song

“All the Stars” (“Black Panther”)

"Girl in the Movies" ("Dumplin")

“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (“Mary Poppins Returns”)

“I’ll Fight” (“RBG”)

“Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”)

Best Sound Editing

"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"First Man"

"A Quiet Place"

"A Star Is Born"
"Roma"

Best Sound Mixing

"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"First Man"

"A Quiet Place"

"A Star Is Born"
"Roma"

Best Visual Effects
“Avengers Infinity War”

“Black Panther”

“First Man”

“Ready Player One”
"Solo: A Star Wars Story"

Best Live Action Short

“Caroline”
“Detainment”

"Icare"
“Marguerite”
"Skin"

Best Animated Short

“Bao”
“Bilby”
“Bird Karma”
"Pepe Le Morse"
“Weekends”

Best Documentary Short

End Game 

My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes

Period. End of Sentence.

Women of the Gulag 

Zion