Predicting nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress; a touch on category fraud

Last night I finally ventured to the theater to see "Mary Poppins Returns."  I have never seen the original "Mary Poppins" from start to finish. No clue why. I had hoped to watch it before seeing the sequel, but oddly enough, even though much of the Disney catalog is at Netflix, not Mary.

I have to say, I didn't feel bombarded with nods to the original, although I'm guessing they were there, which made for a truly enjoyable singular film watching experience. It did feel a bit bloated and overlong at times - although I love Meryl Streep and found the lyrics in "Turning Turtle" to be quite fun, the scene somewhat stopped the action. Also, as great as the dance sequence was that accompanied "Trip a Little Light Fantastic," it came a bit out of nowhere in the narrative. I didn't even notice that they were lost.

Does any of this matter? Not really.

I have to be careful of declarations soon after seeing a film, but I am definitely feeling a double nomination morning for Emily Blunt. I don't think the movie gets in for Best Picture, but the Sofia Loren hosted party from last week along with the fact that she is simply spit spot in the role (even though I swear she is channeling Charles Bush in "Psycho Beach Party" in moments!) I think she's in.

Here are my Best Actress predictions:

Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Lady Gaga, "A Star is Born"
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me:
Emily Blunt, "Mary Poppins:

Of course, Yalitza Aparicio ("Roma") or Toni Collette ("Hereditary")...maybe even Joanna Kulig ("Cold War") could get in...but I'm thinking Emily Blunt's performance is simply too delightful to ignore.

Category Fraud

There has been a bit of discussion during Phase 1 about category fraud, as per usual, but this year it actually has me thinking. In addition to Emily Blunt, Ben Whishaw gives a great supporting performance in "Mary Poppins Returns" as Michael Banks. This is a true supporting performance. The part of the conversation that I've never really considered before is what happens to the TRUE supporting performances when lead roles (often portrayed by previous nominees/winners) end up in that category. This year, Timothee Chalamet and Mahershala Ali come to mind. I can make a case for both belonging in supporting, particularly Ali...but how could the likes of Whishaw stand a fighting chance?

Best Picture

It's pretty easy to predict the Top 6 contenders for Best Picture. It's those last few 2 or 3 films that are much harder. How can you predict a surprise? Not easy. What about navigating the Academy's Best Picture rules for landing a nomination? I'm not going to explain that, here but you can read about it at Gold Derby (How do the Oscars choose Best Picture nominees?). It really boils down to guessing what the the real #1s and #2s will be.

For example, it doesn't matter that I (and plenty of others) hate "Vice." If enough people place it at #1, which they will, It will get nominated. But it won't win. Divisive doesn't win Best Picture anymore. Same with "If Beale Street Could Talk." I think that 200+ people could put it at number one or number 2.

Let's look at the last to years, what I got right and what I got wrong. All of these are in order of likelihood.

2018 - 5 out of 8 (lame!)

The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
Get Out
Dunkirk
Call Me By Your Name
I, Tonya 

The Big Sick 

The Post

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

2017 predictions - NAILED IT!

La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
Manchester by the Sea
Hidden Figures

Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Fences
Lion

So, where did I go wrong last year? I was swayed by my own opinion. I was underwhelmed by "The Post" and "Darkest Hour" but many people liked those films and most importantly they are the DEFINITION of Oscar movies, even if that definition might be changing.

And "Phantom Thread?" It was a late breaker, and I was very close to predicting it.
"I, Tonya" was fun, but it probably didn't have enough #1s and Neon didn't quite get there with their campaign.

There really is no "Phantom Thread" this year, but I would say that a film that would fit that earlier definition would be "First Man," so I'm going to take a risk and put it in.

In years past, I have also been quick to choose "popular" films. "The Big Sick" falls into that category. I also predicted "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II" and although I didn't do official nomination predictions in their years, I probably would have predicted "Wonder Woman" and "Star Wars: The Force Awakens,"

This year, there are a few popular ones that could make it in - "Crazy Rich Asians," "Bohemian Rhapsody," "Mary Poppins Returns," and "A Quiet Place."

Will the Academy go for "Bohemian Rhapsody?" The Producers and SAG nominated it, and the Globes named it Best Picture.

But, if the Academy goes for "Bohemian Rhapsody," and "First Man" that means no "Beale Street," or "A Quiet Place."

SO...let's do this.

Best Picture predictions (in order of likelihood) 

Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Green Book
The Favourite
First Man
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody

SPOILERS:

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Quiet Place

LONG SHOTS:

Crazy Rich Asians

Mary Poppins Returns

Cold War