Heading into Phase 2 of the Oscar race

We are almost there. Phase 2 of the Oscar race.

Since Cannes...or even South By Southwest (which screened "A Quiet Place," "Isle of Dogs" and one of my favorite films of the year, "Final Portrait") we had a very long festival season.

The festival circuit begins to shape the critical and journalist/blogger narrative. That's where we hear things like, "A Star is Born" is the frontrunner and "BlacKkKlansman" is a return to form for Spike Lee. "Beautiful Boy" is "repetitive and relentless" (which seems to be a bad thing) but Timothee Chalamet is great in it. "Boy Erased" is disappointing. "ROMA" is a masterpiece. Netflix is evil. That sort of talk.

As the festival season closes with Telluride and Toronto International Film Festival...the narrative shifts a bit. We hear that "A Star is Born" is overrated and "Green Book" is the real "feel good" favorite. "First Reformed" is going to be a Best Picture contender. Toni Collete gives the best performance EVER!!!! All that jazz...the starts of Phase 1...nomination campaigning.

As the year closes we go into Phase 1...nomination campaigning. We also get some actual public perceptions to go along with the critics. "Bohemian Rhapsody" is one of the best movies of the year...says the public...and one of the worst says the critics and bloggers.

This week, Phase 1 is having it's very hot reentry to reality. Now, "Green Book" has a questionable narrative...and maybe "A Star is Born" isn't as bad as they all thought. Not if "Bohemian Rhapsody" is going to challenge for Best Picture, having shown up A LOT with the Guilds and given Best Picture by the Golden Globes. BUT...maybe, just maybe, "Black Panther" was the winner all along!

At this point last year things were much more clearer, particularly in the acting races. The Critic's Choice Awards sealed the deal for those four categories. I remember thinking that it was the last chance for Timothee...and it just didn't happen.

I do think Glenn Close is our Best Actress frontrunner. Same with Regina King for "If Beale Street Could Talk" (I missed the mark with that one, having declared the Globes for Amy Adams) and Cuaron for Best Director. Probably Mahershala Ali and Christian Bale as well. But things really could go any way at this point. ESPECIALLY with Best Picture. But don't expect "Bohemian Rhapsody" to win tonight because it isn't nominated. BUT...Malek could, and that would be telling.

More will be revealed tonight.

COMING UP

There are a few more things I'm still hoping to look at this year before settling in on the Oscar nominations...particularly the different perceptions of films such as "Beautiful Boy," "Ben is Back," even "A Star is Born." I keep seeing that the 2nd half of "A Star is Born" is weak. That "Beautiful Boy" is repetitive. Those are not the responses of people who understand the disease of addiction. I believe the 2nd half of "A Star is Born" has something more important to say than the first half and that it is executed quite well. I've been holding off on looking at this until I see "Ben is Back" (happening today) and speak with Timothee Chalamet and the creative forces behind "Beautiful Boy." So, look for that at some point.

I also plan to see "Mary Poppins Returns" tomorrow night. I really should have seen this already, but I just haven't wanted to, partly because I haven't seen the original. But...before I make my Oscar predictions, I need to see it...especially Emily Blunt's performance.

I plan to revisit "Vice" this week as well. To say I did not like "Vice" is a massive understatement, and I thought Amy Adams and Christian Bales's performances in it were subpar. I'm not expecting to change my opinion of the film itself, but I need to see what the people who loved it see. At least to understand its chances in getting nominations for Best Picture, Director and Screenplay.

Finally, I got my Film Independent, Independent Spirit Awards screeners, so it is time to start watching those films, as well as the unseen (yet unknown at this point) Oscar nominated films (nominations are January 22nd).

6 weeks till the Oscars. Seems like a lifetime...until it doesn't.