Today's the day where things are really supposed to start making sense when it comes to the Oscars.
Right? Maybe.
Let's look at the obvious snubs and "surprises" from this morning's SAG nominations.
Biggest snubs - ZERO nominations for "Roma." Zero nominations for "If Beale Street Could Talk," including our supposed frontrunner Regina King. No nomination for Ethan Hawke of "First Reformed."
For Ensemble we got:
A Star is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
We didn't get Green Book, Vice, The Favourite, Beale Street, First Man, First Reformed or Roma.
Hot takes:
Emma Stone and Amy Adams got 2 nominations each. Go them!
Margot Robbie got in for "Mary Queen of Scotts" and Emily Blunt got in for "Mary Poppins Returns." Those are nice boosts for them.
Toni Collette did not get in, which brings me joy that actors actually know what they are talking about.
But then they put in "Bohemian Rhapsody," which is odd. Even by my "Ensemble" theory.
Timothee Chalamet got in for "Beautiful Boy." YAY! I would be happy if Richard E. Grant won or Mahershala Ali, but I'm still rooting for Timothee to take it.
The past two years I have watched people say that SAG did some crazy things. I seem to be the only person actually championing the fact that many SAG members take the Best Cast in an Ensemble seriously for what it is. Oscar prognosticators can't seem to get on board with the idea of this always, year after year saying it's their version of Best Film and then having amnesia saying that they did some CRAZY THINGS.
The "strangest" was a couple of years ago with "Captain Fantastic" instead of "La La Land" and a win for "Hidden Figures" instead of "Moonlight." That makes sense to me in retrospect. Same with last year's nominations for "The Big Sick" and "Mudbound" instead of "The Shape of Water" and "Call Me By Your Name."
The crazy good thing that they did was nominate "Crazy Rich Asians." The crazy bad thing - "Bohemian Rhapsody."
Looking at the Critics Choice nominations everything seemed to really make sense. The list for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress. It all looks good and in line with what most people have been saying all year. Last year CC nominated "The Big Sick" and "The Florida Project" which seemed to many to be in line with what the Academy would do as well. If I remember correctly, I predicted both.
The BFCA is a critics organization, sure...but they tend to lean toward safe, mainstream choices. They actually take less chances than the Academy. I can remember watching the ceremony last year thinking it might be the last chance I would see Timothee or "Call Me By Your Name" win major awards. They had nominated Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg when the Academy had not. But alas, they went with the consensus that had taken over from the critics.
So, what's really missing there is "First Reformed." Both the Globes and Critic's Choice places Paul Schrader's amazing film into Best Actor and Best Screenplay - the safest bets. And Sag left it out completely.
Also missing last year were Lesley Manville and "Phantom Thread." We really misread the tea leaves last year when Critic's Choice nominated Daniel Day Lewis for "Phantom Thread" but SAG did not. We saw that as the film losing traction. Both SAG and CC nominated James Franco instead. The Academy did not.
Hindsight is 20/20 as they say. What was actually happening was that Academy members were catching up to "Phantom Thread" and loving it, while Franco was losing traction while his conduct was being called into question with #metoo.
It's hard to tell what might be this year's "Phantom Thread" although the most obvious choice is "First Reformed." People are still catching up with "Vice" and "Marry Poppins Returns." I have no idea if anyone has seen "The Mule." I haven't seen anyone really talk about it at all. So, we'll see.
On the TV side, I would be remiss not to mention my utter joy to see "Schitt's Creek" nominated for Best Comedy Series. I love this show so much and the 4th season was phenomenal. Exactly the right balance of humor and heart. But today SAG left them off.
Full list of nominees
FILM
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
“A Star Is Born”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Crazy Rich Asians”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”
Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“Ant-Man and the Wasp”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“Mission: Impossible – Fallout”
TELEVISION
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
“The Americans”
“Better Call Saul”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Ozark”
“This Is Us”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Joseph Fiennes, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
John Krasinski, “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Julia Garner, “Ozark”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
“Atlanta”
“Barry”
“GLOW”
“The Kominsky Method”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Alison Brie, “GLOW”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Jane Fonda, “Grace and Frankie”
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Miniseries or Television Movie
Antonio Banderas, “Genius: Picasso”
Darren Criss, “Assassination of Gianni Versace”
Hugh Grant, “A Very English Scandal”
Anthony Hopkins, “King Lear”
Bill Pullman, “The Sinner”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Miniseries or Television Movie
Amy Adams, “Sharp Objects”
Patricia Arquette, “Escape at Dannemora”
Patricia Clarkson, “Sharp Objects”
Penelope Cruz, “Assassination of Gianni Versace”
Emma Stone, “Maniac”
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
“Daredevil”
“GLOW”
“Jack Ryan”
“The Walking Dead”
“Westworld”
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