Gotham Awards, predicting the National Board of Review and Best Picture

Gothams
The Gotham Independent Film Awards have been around since 1991, but they have evolved over the years from a means to honor films made in the NE United States, giving just a few awards, including the Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award, to many more. I knew almost nothing about the Gotham Awards until a few years ago, and now, they are the group that tries to jump start the Awards Race. Each category has a very small nominating committee, and the crossover from this group to Oscar is nonexistent.

But, what the Gothams have is exposure. Last night, on my twitter feed at least, the Gothams were the main event.

For those of us who have been around a lot longer, the race begins today with the National Board of Review.

Did the Gothams make any sort of impact last night? I would say that "The Rider" got some exposure, winning Best Film. I keep considering "The Rider" a 2017 film, having watched it as part of last season. BUT, it wasn't released until April of 2018.

I think the biggest winners last night were Ethan Hawke and "First Reformed," Toni Collette and Bo Burnham and "Eighth Grade."

If things keep going this way, these types of wins will certainly translate into screenplay nominations for "First Reformed" and "Eighth Grade," but we might even see Burnham get in for director. The directing branch does so funny things some time. Right now I think "First Reformed" is deserving of a Best Picture nomination as well as Best Actor for Hawke. Collette? I abstain from talking about that just yet.

Best Picture
Sunday I saw "Green Book" and last night, "The Favourite." With these films under my belt  I feel like I can properly talk about Best Picture. Yes..."Vice" could get in and if Clint Eastwood's "The Mule" is good, it can get in as well. But I think I've seen the majority of the contenders.

I really liked "Green Book." I actually just deleted a whole paragraph where I defending the offenses of critics who seem to have a problem with the film (that's one of my mission statements this year. Don't defend the offenses!!). "Green Book" worked for me. Absolutely. I don't know if it will survive to be in my Top 10, but it's possible.

I think the Academy will go for it. If not for a win, definitely a nomination. Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen are both incredible. I won't be mad if Mahershala beats Timothee Chalamet in the supporting category mostly because they are both really leads in their films. And they are both fantastic.

While I was watching "The Favourite," a film I really enjoyed and need to see again, I kept thinking, the Academy will never in a million years go for this movie for Best Picture. I also don't see Olivia Coleman winning Best Actress. BUT...I could be wrong. The landscape of the Academy is changing. Drastically. This is very much a Yorgos Lanthimos film. Don't let anyone convince you that this is some sort of mainstream film. It's not. Even if it has Emma Stone in it. Yorgos takes realistic people and puts them into a fantasy world. This time he just happened to use real people in a realistic setting.

So...where does that leave us with Best Picture?

Where we started before I saw all of these movies.

I think it's between "Roma" and "A Star is Born." I can't see any other film realistically giving either of these films a run for their BP money. The past few years I tend to get it right early on when it comes to Best Picture. I was on the radio last year declaring "The Shape of Water" the film to beat when it seemed the writing was on the wall for "Three Billboards," but in the end, I slowly flipped and was wrong. We have 3 more months of this...and people who write about the Oscars are going to write and write and prognosticate a lot, which will make things really confusing. So, Oscarwatchers, hang in there.

National Board of Review
SO...how can one even begin to predict what the National Board of Review might do. I have NEVER been able to predict this group's winners, so don't trust me! But let's try.

They are a group comprised of "film enthusiasts, filmmakers, professionals and academics of varying ages and backgrounds." They are known to attempt to catapult a film into awards season. It even says so on their website. "...Often propelling recipients such as George Miller's visionary 2015 Best Film Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road, into the larger awards conversation.

The question is. What is the film that needs to be propelled into the larger awards conversation?

I don't think it would be "A Star is Born." Or "Roma." They are already there. If I had to guess, I would say they will go for "The Favourite" or "First Reformed" or maybe something wild like "Black Panther" or even "BlackKklansman."

BUT...last year they went with "The Post." Is there a film like "The Post" this year? One that seems to have been a bit left out? I would say that might be "First Man," "On the Basis of Sex" or even something crazy like "Suspiria." Of those three only "First Man" has a chance.

I'll probably be completely wrong, but here is my guess -

Best Film
The Favourite (or First Man)

Top 10
A Star is Born
Green Book
First Man
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
First Reformed
BlackKklansman
Eighth Grade
The Mule (why not?! Have they even seen it?)