After my second viewing of "A Star is Born" I made a declaration on Facebook.
No way I am going to say A Star is Born is going to win Best Picture...not yet...but it’s probably the best chance for a big popular studio movie to actually contend...really contend in a long time.
Can a major studio, popular, crowd pleasing film actually win Best Picture? I made that statement based on a gut feeling. Let's see if I actually know what I'm talking about.
Is "A Star is Born" popular, first of all? If you look at the numbers from opening weekend - $42.6 million, it exceeded box office expectations. If word of mouth does what I expect it to do it should make over $100 million. There are a few people on Twitter who seem to dislike the film, but I'm not that concerned with that right now. It's when those detractors find another favorite and through fatigue/desperation for clicks begin a take down of "A Star is Born" that we need to really be concerned. It's never good to be the frontrunner. Unless you are "Spotlight."
The most important question is whether or not it is popular with the Academy. Accordint to Scott Feinberg with the Hollywood Reporter, they were turning people away at both the LA and NYC Academy screenings this weekend, and although many people seemed to love it, some had issues and neither screening had standing ovations.
What does that mean? It means expectations were stratospheric. After the first screening, I had no clue what to think, honestly. I didn't clap either. I was stunned and processing. But...there are some detractors in that piece Scott wrote. Is it a true cross section of the Academy or is it an attempt by Scott at balanced reporting. (I'm trying really hard not to defend the film simply because I loved it.)
Read it for yourself:
Oscars: 'A Star Is Born' Wows Full Houses at Enthusiastic Academy Screenings
Is "A Star is Born" popular, first of all? If you look at the numbers from opening weekend - $42.6 million, it exceeded box office expectations. If word of mouth does what I expect it to do it should make over $100 million. There are a few people on Twitter who seem to dislike the film, but I'm not that concerned with that right now. It's when those detractors find another favorite and through fatigue/desperation for clicks begin a take down of "A Star is Born" that we need to really be concerned. It's never good to be the frontrunner. Unless you are "Spotlight."
The most important question is whether or not it is popular with the Academy. Accordint to Scott Feinberg with the Hollywood Reporter, they were turning people away at both the LA and NYC Academy screenings this weekend, and although many people seemed to love it, some had issues and neither screening had standing ovations.
What does that mean? It means expectations were stratospheric. After the first screening, I had no clue what to think, honestly. I didn't clap either. I was stunned and processing. But...there are some detractors in that piece Scott wrote. Is it a true cross section of the Academy or is it an attempt by Scott at balanced reporting. (I'm trying really hard not to defend the film simply because I loved it.)
Read it for yourself:
Oscars: 'A Star Is Born' Wows Full Houses at Enthusiastic Academy Screenings
So, it seems that the film is popular and was certainly a crowd pleaser amongst the people I saw the film with...so let's take a look back at Oscars history. Let's consider the Big 6 studios only.
Warner Brothers
Paramount
Walt Disney
Sony
Universal
20th Century Fox
The first film that came to mind as a popular, crowd pleasing, emotional Best Picture winner was "Terms of Endearment." It was released in 1983, made just over 100 million at the box office, was released by Paramount Pictures and took home the gold.
Let's start at 1983 and consider $100 million as a base line.
1989
"Driving Miss Daisy," also released by Warner Brothers also made about 100 million and won.
1992
"Unforgiven," also Warner Brothers - $100 million
1994
"Forrest Gump," Paramount - $330 million
1997
"Titanic," 20th Century Fox - $659 million
2001
"A Beautiful Mind," Universal - $170 million
2004
"Million Dollar Baby," Warner Brothers - $100 million
2006
"The Departed, "Warner Brothers" - $132 million
2012
"Argo," Warner Brothers - $232 million
Notice that big jump from 2006 to 2012. And obviously there is the gap from "Argo" to today.
We did have "Avatar" in 2009 (20th Century Fox and $760 million), "Lincoln" in 2013 (Walt Disney and $275 million) and "Gravity" in 2014 (Warner Brothers and $723 million). All three were serious contenders for the prize, but lost to "The Hurt Locker," "Argo" and "12 Years a Slave."
If you look at the whole list, Warner Brothers seems to know how to win Best Picture with a hit on their hands. Although they haven't done so in over a decade. To their credit, their last two wins, "Million Dollar Baby" and "The Departed" weren't necessarily the easiest sells. Interestingly enough both of those years involved Scorsese. ("Million Dollar Baby" beat "The Aviator" and "The Departed" finally won Scorsese Best Director.)
2012
"Argo," Warner Brothers - $232 million
Notice that big jump from 2006 to 2012. And obviously there is the gap from "Argo" to today.
We did have "Avatar" in 2009 (20th Century Fox and $760 million), "Lincoln" in 2013 (Walt Disney and $275 million) and "Gravity" in 2014 (Warner Brothers and $723 million). All three were serious contenders for the prize, but lost to "The Hurt Locker," "Argo" and "12 Years a Slave."
If you look at the whole list, Warner Brothers seems to know how to win Best Picture with a hit on their hands. Although they haven't done so in over a decade. To their credit, their last two wins, "Million Dollar Baby" and "The Departed" weren't necessarily the easiest sells. Interestingly enough both of those years involved Scorsese. ("Million Dollar Baby" beat "The Aviator" and "The Departed" finally won Scorsese Best Director.)
Of that list, I would say that the films most comparable to what we are looking at today are:
"Driving Miss Daisy"
"Forrest Gump"
"Titanic"
Although all three of those films received good reviews and public acclaim, they have been derided over the years by a new guard of Oscar blogger and film critic. I have had issues with "Forrest Gump," since 1994 but still love "Titanic" and have not revisited "Driving Miss Daisy" in decades. Today, there are so many people making hot takes at festival screenings followed by a few actual criticisms of the film, and think piece after think piece that it can be really difficult to asses the actual merits of the film. Just because I follow someone on Twitter doesn't necessarily mean they know what they are talking about when it comes to movies.
Although all three of those films received good reviews and public acclaim, they have been derided over the years by a new guard of Oscar blogger and film critic. I have had issues with "Forrest Gump," since 1994 but still love "Titanic" and have not revisited "Driving Miss Daisy" in decades. Today, there are so many people making hot takes at festival screenings followed by a few actual criticisms of the film, and think piece after think piece that it can be really difficult to asses the actual merits of the film. Just because I follow someone on Twitter doesn't necessarily mean they know what they are talking about when it comes to movies.
In addition to "A Star is Born," there is also "Black Panther," which I also rewatched this weekend. Both are big studio films (Warner Brothers and Disney/Marvel Picture), well reviewed, likeable, populist films. Some might argue that "Black Panther" has a bit more to say, but it still does so in a Marvel superhero kind of way. "A Star is Born" also has something to say, about alcoholism and fame, but in a Warner Brothers kind of way.
We already know that "A Star is Born" is a first weekend hit and "Black Panther" was a world wide blockbuster.
So...can it be done? Can "A Star is Born" or "Black Panther" win Best Picture. First off, can they be nominated?
I had some issues with "Black Panther" the first time around. I am still not sure why the king abandoned the child. He says, this is the "truth I chose to omit." Was he afraid to actually take a look at the issues his brother (a wonderful Sterling K Brown) had with taking a backseat look at the suffering world? And if he brought the child back with him to Wakanda, the truth of the murder would come out? I guess that's what director Ryan Coogler was trying to say.
But the biggest issue I still have is at the 2nd ritual when Michael B. Jordan's Erik (the abandoned child) says that he has waiting his whole life to kill T'Challa (Chadwick Boseman).
Wait, huh?
I can understand if he said, "avenge my father" or "get justice" or "carry on my father's work" or even a combination of those things, but it makes no sense that he has been plotting the death of T'Challa for his whole life.
The things is: Coogler needed T'Challa and Erik to fight. It was necessary to fill the superhero box of storytelling and reminds me that despite the fact that it sits atop the genre, it is still a superhero movie.
When I watched "A Star is Born" for the first time, I was a bit taken back due to the very immersive camera work from cinematographer Matthew Libitique and director Bradley Cooper. I assumed there would be close ups, but this was a definitive choice for how to enter us into the world of Jack and Ally. Once the film finished, I knew that Lady Gaga was great and that "Shallow" was a certain Best Song contender. The film struck me with its tale of addiction more so than failed stardom. I wouldn't say this on Twitter, but I did tell Amy (my Oscars cohort) that I couldn't see it winning Best Picture.
As I went about my day, I couldn't get the film out of my head. I couldn't make sense of what I really thought about it, and I needed to see it again.
After my second viewing I knew that Libitique's choices were much of the reason the film hadn't left me. With expectations out the window I was able to watch the film again and was floored. In the first viewing I remember thinking how odd Lady Gaga performed "Always Remember Us This Way." It wasn't what I had seen from her in the past. Sure the vocals were fantastic, but the gestures, the confidence. It was different.
On the second viewing (and from watching her fantastic interview with Stephen Colbert) I got it. Ally is not Lady Gaga. Once that truly settled in for me, the film finally worked. 100%. Lady Gaga's performance is not only natural and explosive, it is also crafted. This is an Oscar worthy performance in a Best Picture worthy film.
Cooper is also amazing, but I think I will save that praise until I can talk in a more spoilery way about Jack's trajectory.
There are many more films to come out this year and I have yet to see many. I am not saying either one of these films are frontrunners for Best Picture, but I do believe that "Black Panther" can be nominated and that "A Star is Born" can contend as a frontrunner...eventually. But until I see "Roma," "First Man," "The Favourite," "Vice," "Green Book," and more, I don't know.
It's been a very long time since a film like "A Star is Born" has won Best Picture. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out.
As I went about my day, I couldn't get the film out of my head. I couldn't make sense of what I really thought about it, and I needed to see it again.
After my second viewing I knew that Libitique's choices were much of the reason the film hadn't left me. With expectations out the window I was able to watch the film again and was floored. In the first viewing I remember thinking how odd Lady Gaga performed "Always Remember Us This Way." It wasn't what I had seen from her in the past. Sure the vocals were fantastic, but the gestures, the confidence. It was different.
On the second viewing (and from watching her fantastic interview with Stephen Colbert) I got it. Ally is not Lady Gaga. Once that truly settled in for me, the film finally worked. 100%. Lady Gaga's performance is not only natural and explosive, it is also crafted. This is an Oscar worthy performance in a Best Picture worthy film.
Cooper is also amazing, but I think I will save that praise until I can talk in a more spoilery way about Jack's trajectory.
There are many more films to come out this year and I have yet to see many. I am not saying either one of these films are frontrunners for Best Picture, but I do believe that "Black Panther" can be nominated and that "A Star is Born" can contend as a frontrunner...eventually. But until I see "Roma," "First Man," "The Favourite," "Vice," "Green Book," and more, I don't know.
It's been a very long time since a film like "A Star is Born" has won Best Picture. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out.
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