Looking back on yesterday's post, I may have overreacted a bit. About the charger, about The Hollywood Reporter, about everything. I probably under-reacted when it comes to the fact that Timothee Chalamet is not going to win Best Actor, but alas...that's how things go when you only 4 days left of a very long Oscar race.
It seems I may have taken a risk in predicting "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" for Best Picture. Even in an unpredictable year, the shift in thought is moving towards "The Shape of Water." I'm trying very hard not to let emotion get in the way of my predictions this year.
Although the two films were back to back in my Top 20, with "Three Billboards" at 13 and "The Shape of Water" at 14, as often happens in with me in Phase 2, a chasm of sorts has appeared between the two. I plan on buying "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" to take to my parents over the weekend, but I suddenly don't see myself even revisiting "The Shape of Water."
Is this a defense mechanism to give me strength in my prediction? Who knows? Part of me is holding on to the fact that Sasha Stone is also on this page. For now. She has changed her mind at the last minute before. I'm trying very hard not to do that. If Kris Tapley at Variety is 100 percent correct in his predictions, I will miss 5. And 19/24 will be the best I've done since 2014. I think I will do about 19... or worse around 13. WHO KNOWS!?
I realized yesterday that I have yet to discuss Makeup and Hairstyling, but that is also because I have yet to see "Wonder." I'm planning to watch it tonight along with "Loving Vincent." Then I will be done. Two films out of many.
My documentary feature piece went live at Awards Daily. I hope that you will check it out:
Feature Documentaries Transcend Once Again at the Oscars
OK. Next on the docket: Original Song, Original Score.
Original Score
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards, Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell
I just had a thought that the Academy might want to award "Phantom Thread" here. But if I'm sticking with my guns that "The Shape of Water" is not winning picture, it's more than likely going to take this as well.
I remember liking Jonny Greenwood's score a great deal for "Phantom Thread." "Star Wars" was Star Wars. I could not tell you anything about "Three Billboards'" score. I remember the music that was playing in some of the TV ads was infectious...as in disease infection. My favorite is Hans Zimmer's score for "Dunkirk." I think that it plays an equal part to the film's editing, sound editing and sound mixing. I think it should win all four. But this has to go to Desplat. I can actually still hum the melodies from his work in "The Shape of Water." Not an easy feat considering the mush that is my Oscars brain.
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk
Original Song
Mighty River, Mudbound - Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
Mystery of Love, Call Me By Your Name - Sufjan Stevens
Remember Me, Coco - Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez
Stand Up for Something, Marshall - Diane Warren, and Lonnie R. Lynn
This is Me, The Greatest Showman - Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
This is another category that I simply can't understand why people are predicting anything other than "This is Me." I actually thought "Remember Me" was the weakest part of "Coco." It's kind of like predicting "Lou" in Animated Short. Is Pixar really that powerful that their most mediocre work still wins? Don't get me wrong....I love "Coco." So far, I think it's my favorite in the Animated Feature category, but the song itself is not that great to me.
I ended up really loving "Marshall." It's a really entertaining film, and the song is great. Typical credit sequence stuff. Same with "Mighty River." Right? That did play with the credits, didn't it? I saw it before I even knew the song was in contention.
The ones that truly deserve it are "Mystery of Love" and "This is Me." From the beginning of the season when I first heard Sufjan Stevens's beautiful song play over the film's trailer almost a year ago, I knew the music was special.
I couldn't quite understand how this style music was going to work with the visuals of the film I was seeing. I remember thinking the song was probably something for the trailer only.
Luca and Sufjan went for it though. "Futile Devices" and it's use in the film with Walter Fason's editing is, stylistically, the most daring moment in the film. Of course it's a remix of an already released song. I think "Visions of Gideon" is as good as "Mystery of Love" if not a tad better.
BUT..."This is Me" is an anthem that I need in my life right now. It's a powerful moment in the film, and the song is everywhere. I'm not saying that the Academy has seen the film, but I know they have heard the song. I think Pasek and Paul take it. I hope they do. They certainly are the superior duo in this year's nominees.
Will win/Should win: This is Me
Don't take my word for it...check them out below!
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