27 Days of Oscar, Day 22: Predicting Best Picture

It's been a very long Oscar race. Partly because of the fact that we were given an extra week to consider the outcome (thanks Olympics!) and also due to the fact that we still don't have a clear Best Picture winner. Today the ballots are due, so where things stand today is where it stands.

The race for Best Picture began just over a year ago at Sundance when "Get Out," "Call Me By Your Name" and "The Big Sick" premiered to great success. A few weeks later, "Get Out" became a massive box office hit. A few people, myself included, believed that it was a Best Picture contender from the start but most believed its only real shot was Original Screenplay. That actually became true for "The Big Sick" instead.

The Cannes Film Festival had very little impact on the Best Picture Race. "Call Me By Your Name" showed there to more rapture (should it have actually premiered here instead? There are so many question marks as to why this film isn't winning Best Picture...something those of us who love it will be baffled by for many years, I believe), but most of the awards winners, "The Square," "BPM," "The Beguiled," "In the Fade," "Loveless," have little to no chance of taking home a prize on Oscar night or were snubbed entirely.

At Toronto, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" won the audience award over, "The Shape of Water" won at Venice. Greta Gerwig became the toast of Telluride, and "Dunkirk," ignoring the festival circuit, followed in "Get Out's" shoes to become a massive hit, with both critics and audiences.

As the months went by there were other possibilities for Best Picture, "I, Tonya," "Wonder Woman," come to mind. At one point "The Post" was the film to beat, "Darkest Hour" would probably have to settle for a Best Actor nomination, with Timothee Chalamet winning,  "Phantom Thread" would get shutout except for Daniel Day Lewis due to its late release, and "Lady Bird," the BEST REVIEWED FILM EVER!!!....anyway...you get what I'm trying to say here right?

There have been many, many, many stories about what could possibly take Best Picture.

The past two years I was wrong predicting this award. Very wrong. I was sure that "The Revenant" was going to beat "Spotlight" and last year it was "La La Land" over "Moonlight." Looking back I can see where I was wrong. The hive mind had gone over to "The Revenant" mostly because in 2016 there was a similar case of Oscar season fatigue, and we wanted drama in the race that simply wasn't there.

With "La La Land," there was a shifting tide. I honestly think it was more about the election and the brilliance of "Moonlight" than any sort of backlash. This morning I  saw a picture from "La La Land" on Twitter that made me feel nothing. I think the race was close last year. If the two films were up against each other today, I doubt it would be.

Also, in both cases, the actors didn't nominated the films for Best Ensemble. So, how can I honestly believe "The Shape of Water" could win Best Picture? Could the preferential ballot make that much of a difference here? Same with "Get Out?" Could the 20% new Academy really overpower the 80% that already exists?

"The Post" and "Darkest Hour" are the weakest of the bunch, by far. They are lucky to have been nominated.

"Lady Bird" lost all its steam somehow. Why? I don't know. I know that I didn't really have much to say about it after a few tweets right after seeing it.

"Call Me By Your Name?" Well, it got lucky to even be nominated, I guess.

That leaves the original frontrunners, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" and "The Shape of Water."

I have said multiple times that I can't see "Get Out" winning Best Picture. On the surface there is no evidence that it has any sort of chance. Wouldn't one of the guilds or major awards shows have given it a Best Picture? Looking at the critics awards, it did win several Best Film awards. Although it only has 4 Oscar nominations, it really does have the best 4 it could have, I guess. Jordan Peele won the WGA and a few first filmmaker awards, and everyone, I mean EVERYONE is saying it is in the running. So, I must consider it.

I can flip flop between justification for any of the wins. "Get Out" would get the newer, younger vote.  The new foreign contingent would more than likely go for "Three Billboards." "The Shape of Water" is liked...and apparently--"loved by a few and liked by many" is good enough in a preferential ballot.

At some point you just have to make a choice when it comes to these things. And I am going with "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." Not because of stats or even because I love it (which I do...it made my top 20) but because despite what everyone has said about it, and despite "Lady Bird," "The Shape of Water," "Dunkirk" and "Get Out" being bandied about as the new frontrunner, "Three Billboards" has consistently been winning the entire season. 

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Call Me By Your Name